Belgium vs Iran

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 21, 13:00 CDMX FT 0–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Belgium

Model probability 63.5%

Market no-vig 68.5%

Calibrated probability 66.0%

Draw

Model probability 23.6%

Market no-vig 20.0%

Calibrated probability 21.8%

Iran

Model probability 12.9%

Market no-vig 11.5%

Calibrated probability 12.2%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.5%

1-0 13.4%

1-1 10.3%

2-1 9.9%

3-0 8.4%

0-0 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.8% Over 0.5 92.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.3% Over 1.5 74.7%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.0% Over 2.5 49.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.2% Over 3.5 26.8%

BTTS yes 44.3%

BTTS no 55.7%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 49.1%

Away clean sheet 14.4%

Home win to nil 41.3%

Away win to nil 6.6%

Home over 0.5 85.6%

Away over 0.5 50.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 66.0%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 34.0%

Home 0.0

Home cover 66.0%

Push 21.8%

Away cover 12.2%

Home 0.5

Home cover 87.8%