France vs Senegal

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 16, 13:00 CDMX FT 3–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

France

Model probability 76.3%

Market no-vig 64.4%

Calibrated probability 70.4%

Draw

Model probability 18.0%

Market no-vig 21.6%

Calibrated probability 19.8%

Senegal

Model probability 5.7%

Market no-vig 14.0%

Calibrated probability 9.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 15.8%

1-0 14.1%

3-0 11.3%

0-0 9.0%

1-1 8.7%

2-1 7.1%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.0% Over 0.5 91.0%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.6% Over 1.5 72.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.4% Over 2.5 46.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.8% Over 3.5 25.2%

BTTS yes 33.7%

BTTS no 66.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 60.3%

Away clean sheet 15.0%

Home win to nil 51.3%

Away win to nil 6.0%

Home over 0.5 85.0%

Away over 0.5 39.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 70.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 29.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 70.4%

Push 19.8%

Away cover 9.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 90.2%