Portugal vs Uzbekistan

World Cup 2026 · Group K · Jun 23, 11:00 CDMX FT 5–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Portugal

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 83.6%

Calibrated probability 83.4%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 11.4%

Calibrated probability 12.7%

Uzbekistan

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 4.9%

Calibrated probability 3.9%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 19.6%

1-0 16.2%

3-0 15.3%

4-0 9.0%

0-0 6.9%

2-1 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.9% Over 0.5 93.1%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.2% Over 1.5 74.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.2% Over 2.5 49.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.4% Over 3.5 27.6%

BTTS yes 23.7%

BTTS no 76.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 73.6%

Away clean sheet 9.5%

Home win to nil 66.7%

Away win to nil 2.7%

Home over 0.5 90.5%

Away over 0.5 26.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 83.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 16.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 83.4%

Push 12.7%

Away cover 3.9%

Home 0.5

Home cover 96.1%