Argentina vs Algeria

World Cup 2026 · Group J · Jun 16, 19:00 CDMX FT 3–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Argentina

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 63.0%

Calibrated probability 73.1%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 23.4%

Calibrated probability 18.7%

Algeria

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 13.6%

Calibrated probability 8.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

2-0 17.2%

1-0 14.2%

3-0 13.4%

0-0 10.1%

4-0 7.9%

1-1 7.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 10.1% Over 0.5 89.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 28.9% Over 1.5 71.1%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 54.2% Over 2.5 45.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.0% Over 3.5 25.0%

BTTS yes 25.8%

BTTS no 74.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 68.6%

Away clean sheet 15.7%

Home win to nil 58.5%

Away win to nil 5.6%

Home over 0.5 84.3%

Away over 0.5 31.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 73.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 26.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 73.1%

Push 18.7%

Away cover 8.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 91.7%