Egypt vs Iran

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 26, 21:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Egypt

Model probability 32.1%

Market no-vig 36.9%

Calibrated probability 34.5%

Draw

Model probability 28.7%

Market no-vig 35.7%

Calibrated probability 32.2%

Iran

Model probability 39.1%

Market no-vig 27.4%

Calibrated probability 33.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 15.4%

0-0 9.6%

1-0 8.4%

2-1 8.2%

0-1 7.6%

1-2 7.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.6% Over 0.5 90.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.9% Over 2.5 47.1%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.7% Over 3.5 26.3%

BTTS yes 55.0%

BTTS no 45.0%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 27.4%

Away clean sheet 27.2%

Home win to nil 17.8%

Away win to nil 17.5%

Home over 0.5 72.8%

Away over 0.5 72.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 34.5%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 65.5%

Home 0.0

Home cover 34.5%

Push 32.2%

Away cover 33.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 66.7%