Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Ivory Coast vs Norway
World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 30, 11:00 CDMX FT 1–2
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Ivory Coast
Model probability
31.4%
Market no-vig
26.9%
Calibrated probability
29.1%
Draw
Model probability
28.8%
Market no-vig
28.6%
Calibrated probability
28.7%
Norway
Model probability
39.8%
Market no-vig
44.5%
Calibrated probability
42.2%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-2
7.6%
1-0
7.2%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.6%
Over 0.5 91.4%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.4%
Over 1.5 74.6%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.8%
Over 2.5 48.2%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.5%
Over 3.5 26.5%
BTTS yes
53.9%
BTTS no
46.1%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
23.7%
Away clean sheet
31.0%
Home win to nil
15.1%
Away win to nil
22.4%
Home over 0.5
69.0%
Away over 0.5
76.3%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
29.1%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
70.9%
Home 0.0
Home cover
29.1%
Push
28.7%
Away cover
42.2%
Home 0.5
Home cover
57.8%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
42.2%
counter
Market-blended
4–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.6%
Model probability
31.4%
Market no-vig
26.9%
Calibrated probability
29.1%
Explanation weight
50.5%
press
Market-blended
4–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.9%
Model probability
31.4%
Market no-vig
26.9%
Calibrated probability
29.1%
Explanation weight
20.8%
possession
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.2%
Model probability
31.4%
Market no-vig
26.9%
Calibrated probability
29.1%
Explanation weight
12.4%
high-line
Market-blended
3–4
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.3%
Model probability
39.8%
Market no-vig
44.5%
Calibrated probability
42.2%
Explanation weight
11.9%
counter
Market-blended
1–5
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.4%
Model probability
39.8%
Market no-vig
44.5%
Calibrated probability
42.2%
Explanation weight
4.4%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.