Brazil vs Japan

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 29, 11:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Brazil

Model probability 66.8%

Market no-vig 53.9%

Calibrated probability 60.4%

Draw

Model probability 22.4%

Market no-vig 27.1%

Calibrated probability 24.7%

Japan

Model probability 10.8%

Market no-vig 19.0%

Calibrated probability 14.9%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 12.6%

1-0 12.2%

1-1 11.6%

0-0 9.3%

2-1 8.3%

3-0 8.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.3% Over 0.5 90.7%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.9% Over 1.5 73.1%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.3% Over 2.5 46.7%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.6% Over 3.5 25.4%

BTTS yes 43.4%

BTTS no 56.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 48.4%

Away clean sheet 17.5%

Home win to nil 39.1%

Away win to nil 8.2%

Home over 0.5 82.5%

Away over 0.5 51.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 60.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 39.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 60.4%

Push 24.7%

Away cover 14.9%

Home 0.5

Home cover 85.1%