Germany vs Paraguay

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 29, 14:30 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Germany

Model probability 71.0%

Market no-vig 72.0%

Calibrated probability 71.5%

Draw

Model probability 20.6%

Market no-vig 18.4%

Calibrated probability 19.5%

Paraguay

Model probability 8.4%

Market no-vig 9.6%

Calibrated probability 9.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 15.4%

1-0 14.3%

3-0 10.4%

1-1 8.9%

2-1 8.8%

0-0 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.8% Over 0.5 92.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.8% Over 1.5 74.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.4% Over 2.5 48.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 38.4%

BTTS no 61.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 56.4%

Away clean sheet 13.0%

Home win to nil 48.6%

Away win to nil 5.2%

Home over 0.5 87.0%

Away over 0.5 43.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 71.5%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 28.5%

Home 0.0

Home cover 71.5%

Push 19.5%

Away cover 9.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 91.0%