Turkiye vs United States

World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 25, 20:00 CDMX FT 3–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Turkiye

Model probability 38.9%

Market no-vig 30.0%

Calibrated probability 34.4%

Draw

Model probability 28.8%

Market no-vig 24.7%

Calibrated probability 26.7%

United States

Model probability 32.3%

Market no-vig 45.3%

Calibrated probability 38.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.8%

0-1 9.5%

1-2 9.2%

0-0 8.1%

1-0 7.9%

2-1 7.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.1% Over 0.5 91.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.4% Over 1.5 74.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.1% Over 2.5 48.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 53.6%

BTTS no 46.4%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 26.3%

Away clean sheet 28.1%

Home win to nil 18.2%

Away win to nil 20.1%

Home over 0.5 71.9%

Away over 0.5 73.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 34.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 65.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 34.4%

Push 26.7%

Away cover 38.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 61.2%