France vs Morocco

World Cup 2026 · Quarter-final · Jul 9, 14:00 CDMX FT 2–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

France

Model probability 68.4%

Market no-vig 60.7%

Calibrated probability 64.6%

Draw

Model probability 21.7%

Market no-vig 24.6%

Calibrated probability 23.1%

Morocco

Model probability 9.9%

Market no-vig 14.7%

Calibrated probability 12.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.6%

1-0 12.9%

1-1 10.8%

3-0 9.0%

0-0 8.8%

2-1 8.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.8% Over 0.5 91.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.3% Over 1.5 73.7%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.5% Over 2.5 47.5%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.0% Over 3.5 26.0%

BTTS yes 41.8%

BTTS no 58.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 51.3%

Away clean sheet 15.7%

Home win to nil 42.5%

Away win to nil 6.9%

Home over 0.5 84.3%

Away over 0.5 48.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 64.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 35.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 64.6%

Push 23.1%

Away cover 12.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 87.7%