Argentina vs Cape Verde

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 3, 16:00 CDMX FT 3–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Argentina

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 84.6%

Calibrated probability 83.9%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 11.1%

Calibrated probability 12.5%

Cape Verde

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 4.3%

Calibrated probability 3.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

2-0 19.7%

1-0 16.2%

3-0 15.4%

4-0 9.1%

0-0 6.8%

2-1 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.8% Over 0.5 93.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.0% Over 1.5 75.0%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.0% Over 2.5 50.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.3% Over 3.5 27.7%

BTTS yes 23.7%

BTTS no 76.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 73.9%

Away clean sheet 9.2%

Home win to nil 67.1%

Away win to nil 2.5%

Home over 0.5 90.8%

Away over 0.5 26.1%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 83.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 16.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 83.9%

Push 12.5%

Away cover 3.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 96.4%