Netherlands vs Sweden

World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 20, 11:00 CDMX FT 5–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Netherlands

Model probability 73.2%

Market no-vig 56.7%

Calibrated probability 65.0%

Draw

Model probability 19.5%

Market no-vig 23.7%

Calibrated probability 21.6%

Sweden

Model probability 7.2%

Market no-vig 19.7%

Calibrated probability 13.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 14.3%

1-0 13.0%

3-0 9.9%

1-1 9.8%

0-0 9.1%

2-1 7.4%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.1% Over 0.5 90.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.8% Over 1.5 72.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.7% Over 2.5 46.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.2% Over 3.5 24.8%

BTTS yes 37.5%

BTTS no 62.5%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 54.5%

Away clean sheet 17.0%

Home win to nil 45.4%

Away win to nil 7.9%

Home over 0.5 83.0%

Away over 0.5 45.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 65.0%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 35.0%

Home 0.0

Home cover 65.0%

Push 21.6%

Away cover 13.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 86.6%