Uruguay vs Spain

World Cup 2026 · Group H · Jun 26, 18:00 CDMX FT 0–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Uruguay

Model probability 10.3%

Market no-vig 15.8%

Calibrated probability 13.1%

Draw

Model probability 22.0%

Market no-vig 26.4%

Calibrated probability 24.2%

Spain

Model probability 67.8%

Market no-vig 57.8%

Calibrated probability 62.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 13.2%

0-1 12.6%

1-1 11.3%

0-0 9.2%

0-3 8.6%

1-2 8.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.2% Over 0.5 90.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.7% Over 1.5 73.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.1% Over 2.5 46.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.4% Over 3.5 25.6%

BTTS yes 42.4%

BTTS no 57.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 16.5%

Away clean sheet 50.3%

Home win to nil 7.3%

Away win to nil 41.1%

Home over 0.5 49.7%

Away over 0.5 83.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 13.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 86.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 13.1%

Push 24.2%

Away cover 62.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 37.2%