Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Mexico vs Ecuador
World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 30, 19:00 CDMX FT 2–0
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Mexico
Model probability
34.6%
Market no-vig
42.7%
Calibrated probability
38.6%
Draw
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
33.8%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Ecuador
Model probability
36.5%
Market no-vig
23.5%
Calibrated probability
30.0%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
15.0%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.8%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 9.4%
Over 0.5 90.6%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.7%
Over 1.5 74.3%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.7%
Over 2.5 47.3%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.8%
Over 3.5 26.2%
BTTS yes
54.7%
BTTS no
45.3%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
29.5%
Away clean sheet
25.1%
Home win to nil
20.1%
Away win to nil
15.7%
Home over 0.5
74.9%
Away over 0.5
70.5%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
38.6%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
61.4%
Home 0.0
Home cover
38.6%
Push
31.3%
Away cover
30.0%
Home 0.5
Home cover
70.0%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
30.0%
counter
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
13.8%
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
33.8%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Explanation weight
33.0%
press
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.7%
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
33.8%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Explanation weight
20.2%
possession
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
13.8%
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
33.8%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Explanation weight
11.9%
counter
Market-blended
0–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.5%
Model probability
36.5%
Market no-vig
23.5%
Calibrated probability
30.0%
Explanation weight
1.4%
counter
Market-blended
2–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
5.3%
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
33.8%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Explanation weight
33.5%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.