Portugal vs DR Congo

World Cup 2026 · Group K · Jun 17, 11:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Portugal

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 74.7%

Calibrated probability 78.9%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 17.3%

Calibrated probability 15.7%

DR Congo

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 8.0%

Calibrated probability 5.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 18.5%

1-0 15.3%

3-0 14.5%

4-0 8.5%

0-0 8.5%

1-1 6.1%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.5% Over 0.5 91.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.8% Over 1.5 73.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.0% Over 2.5 48.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 24.7%

BTTS no 75.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 71.6%

Away clean sheet 12.2%

Home win to nil 63.2%

Away win to nil 3.7%

Home over 0.5 87.8%

Away over 0.5 28.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 78.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 21.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 78.9%

Push 15.7%

Away cover 5.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 94.6%