France vs England

World Cup 2026 · Third place · Jul 18, 15:00 CDMX FT 4–6

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

France

Model probability 45.7%

Market no-vig 55.9%

Calibrated probability 50.8%

Draw

Model probability 28.1%

Market no-vig 22.8%

Calibrated probability 25.5%

England

Model probability 26.2%

Market no-vig 21.3%

Calibrated probability 23.7%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.2%

1-0 11.1%

2-1 10.3%

2-0 9.4%

0-0 7.8%

0-1 6.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.8% Over 0.5 92.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.2% Over 1.5 74.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% Over 2.5 49.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.3% Over 3.5 26.7%

BTTS yes 52.2%

BTTS no 47.8%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 35.6%

Away clean sheet 20.0%

Home win to nil 27.8%

Away win to nil 12.2%

Home over 0.5 80.0%

Away over 0.5 64.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 50.8%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 49.2%

Home 0.0

Home cover 50.8%

Push 25.5%

Away cover 23.7%

Home 0.5

Home cover 76.3%