Spain vs Argentina

World Cup 2026 · Final · Jul 19, 13:00 CDMX FT 1–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Spain

Model probability 41.3%

Market no-vig 42.2%

Calibrated probability 41.8%

Draw

Model probability 28.7%

Market no-vig 31.7%

Calibrated probability 30.2%

Argentina

Model probability 30.1%

Market no-vig 26.1%

Calibrated probability 28.1%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

1-1 14.4%

1-0 9.4%

0-0 9.1%

2-1 8.9%

2-0 7.6%

0-1 7.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.1% Over 0.5 90.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.4% Over 2.5 47.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.7% Over 3.5 26.3%

BTTS yes 54.1%

BTTS no 45.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 31.4%

Away clean sheet 23.6%

Home win to nil 22.3%

Away win to nil 14.5%

Home over 0.5 76.4%

Away over 0.5 68.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 41.8%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 58.2%

Home 0.0

Home cover 41.8%

Push 30.2%

Away cover 28.1%

Home 0.5

Home cover 71.9%