Colombia vs Ghana

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 3, 19:30 CDMX FT 1–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Colombia

Model probability 70.1%

Market no-vig 66.7%

Calibrated probability 68.4%

Draw

Model probability 21.0%

Market no-vig 22.1%

Calibrated probability 21.6%

Ghana

Model probability 8.9%

Market no-vig 11.2%

Calibrated probability 10.1%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 14.6%

1-0 13.7%

1-1 10.0%

3-0 9.8%

2-1 8.6%

0-0 8.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.5% Over 0.5 91.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.2% Over 1.5 73.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.2% Over 2.5 47.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.9% Over 3.5 26.1%

BTTS yes 39.8%

BTTS no 60.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 54.5%

Away clean sheet 14.3%

Home win to nil 46.0%

Away win to nil 5.7%

Home over 0.5 85.7%

Away over 0.5 45.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 68.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 31.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 68.4%

Push 21.6%

Away cover 10.1%

Home 0.5

Home cover 89.9%