Turkiye vs Paraguay

World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 18, 22:00 CDMX FT 0–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Turkiye

Model probability 45.7%

Market no-vig 46.8%

Calibrated probability 46.3%

Draw

Model probability 28.1%

Market no-vig 28.2%

Calibrated probability 28.2%

Paraguay

Model probability 26.2%

Market no-vig 24.9%

Calibrated probability 25.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.5%

1-0 10.1%

2-1 9.3%

0-0 8.7%

2-0 8.6%

0-1 6.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.7% Over 0.5 91.3%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.8% Over 2.5 48.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 52.9%

BTTS no 47.1%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 34.0%

Away clean sheet 21.8%

Home win to nil 25.3%

Away win to nil 13.1%

Home over 0.5 78.2%

Away over 0.5 66.0%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 46.3%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 53.7%

Home 0.0

Home cover 46.3%

Push 28.2%

Away cover 25.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 74.5%