France vs Iraq

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 22, 15:00 CDMX FT 3–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

France

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 89.4%

Calibrated probability 86.3%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 7.4%

Calibrated probability 10.7%

Iraq

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 3.1%

Calibrated probability 3.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 20.3%

1-0 16.7%

3-0 15.9%

4-0 9.3%

2-1 6.1%

0-0 5.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 5.8% Over 0.5 94.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 24.2% Over 1.5 75.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.0% Over 2.5 51.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 71.7% Over 3.5 28.3%

BTTS yes 23.1%

BTTS no 76.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 74.8%

Away clean sheet 7.8%

Home win to nil 69.1%

Away win to nil 2.1%

Home over 0.5 92.2%

Away over 0.5 25.2%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 86.3%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 13.7%

Home 0.0

Home cover 86.3%

Push 10.7%

Away cover 3.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 97.0%