Canada vs Qatar

World Cup 2026 · Group B · Jun 18, 16:00 CDMX FT 6–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Canada

Model probability 50.2%

Market no-vig 75.7%

Calibrated probability 62.9%

Draw

Model probability 27.4%

Market no-vig 16.1%

Calibrated probability 21.7%

Qatar

Model probability 22.5%

Market no-vig 8.3%

Calibrated probability 15.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-0 13.4%

2-1 11.9%

2-0 11.9%

1-1 10.4%

0-0 6.8%

3-0 6.4%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.8% Over 0.5 93.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 24.5% Over 1.5 75.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.4% Over 2.5 50.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.6% Over 3.5 27.4%

BTTS yes 49.9%

BTTS no 50.1%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 42.2%

Away clean sheet 14.7%

Home win to nil 35.3%

Away win to nil 7.9%

Home over 0.5 85.3%

Away over 0.5 57.8%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 62.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 37.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 62.9%

Push 21.7%

Away cover 15.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 84.6%