Spain vs Austria

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 2, 13:00 CDMX FT 3–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Spain

Model probability 82.4%

Market no-vig 72.7%

Calibrated probability 77.6%

Draw

Model probability 14.5%

Market no-vig 18.0%

Calibrated probability 16.3%

Austria

Model probability 3.0%

Market no-vig 9.3%

Calibrated probability 6.2%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 18.5%

1-0 15.6%

3-0 14.2%

0-0 8.9%

4-0 8.1%

1-1 6.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.9% Over 0.5 91.1%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 28.0% Over 1.5 72.0%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.4% Over 2.5 46.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.8% Over 3.5 25.2%

BTTS yes 24.6%

BTTS no 75.4%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 71.1%

Away clean sheet 13.1%

Home win to nil 62.2%

Away win to nil 4.2%

Home over 0.5 86.9%

Away over 0.5 28.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 77.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 22.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 77.6%

Push 16.3%

Away cover 6.2%

Home 0.5

Home cover 93.8%