Belgium vs Senegal

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 1, 14:00 CDMX FT 3–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Belgium

Model probability 53.6%

Market no-vig 48.7%

Calibrated probability 51.2%

Draw

Model probability 26.6%

Market no-vig 28.1%

Calibrated probability 27.3%

Senegal

Model probability 19.8%

Market no-vig 23.3%

Calibrated probability 21.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.0%

1-0 10.7%

2-0 9.9%

2-1 9.2%

0-0 8.8%

0-1 6.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.8% Over 0.5 91.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.8% Over 1.5 74.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.2% Over 2.5 47.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.8% Over 3.5 26.2%

BTTS yes 50.6%

BTTS no 49.4%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 38.3%

Away clean sheet 20.0%

Home win to nil 29.4%

Away win to nil 11.2%

Home over 0.5 80.0%

Away over 0.5 61.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 51.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 48.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 51.2%

Push 27.3%

Away cover 21.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 78.5%