Spain vs Saudi Arabia

World Cup 2026 · Group H · Jun 21, 10:00 CDMX FT 4–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Spain

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 87.1%

Calibrated probability 85.1%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 8.8%

Calibrated probability 11.4%

Saudi Arabia

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 4.1%

Calibrated probability 3.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 20.0%

1-0 16.5%

3-0 15.6%

4-0 9.2%

0-0 6.2%

2-1 6.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.2% Over 0.5 93.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 24.6% Over 1.5 75.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.4% Over 2.5 50.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.0% Over 3.5 28.0%

BTTS yes 23.3%

BTTS no 76.7%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 74.3%

Away clean sheet 8.5%

Home win to nil 68.1%

Away win to nil 2.4%

Home over 0.5 91.5%

Away over 0.5 25.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 85.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 14.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 85.1%

Push 11.4%

Away cover 3.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 96.5%