United States vs Belgium

World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 6, 18:00 CDMX FT 1–4

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

United States

Model probability 18.3%

Market no-vig 37.4%

Calibrated probability 27.8%

Draw

Model probability 26.1%

Market no-vig 29.5%

Calibrated probability 27.8%

Belgium

Model probability 55.6%

Market no-vig 33.2%

Calibrated probability 44.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.2%

0-1 9.2%

0-0 9.1%

0-2 8.7%

1-0 8.3%

1-2 7.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.1% Over 0.5 90.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.7% Over 1.5 73.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.1% Over 2.5 46.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.7% Over 3.5 25.3%

BTTS yes 50.4%

BTTS no 49.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 23.6%

Away clean sheet 35.1%

Home win to nil 14.5%

Away win to nil 25.9%

Home over 0.5 64.9%

Away over 0.5 76.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 27.8%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 72.2%

Home 0.0

Home cover 27.8%

Push 27.8%

Away cover 44.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 55.6%