France vs Spain

World Cup 2026 · Semi-final · Jul 14, 13:00 CDMX FT 0–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

France

Model probability 30.5%

Market no-vig 37.2%

Calibrated probability 33.9%

Draw

Model probability 28.7%

Market no-vig 32.3%

Calibrated probability 30.5%

Spain

Model probability 40.8%

Market no-vig 30.4%

Calibrated probability 35.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 14.6%

0-0 9.2%

1-0 8.4%

2-1 8.2%

0-1 8.1%

1-2 7.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.2% Over 0.5 90.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.7% Over 1.5 74.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.6% Over 2.5 47.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.8% Over 3.5 26.2%

BTTS yes 54.3%

BTTS no 45.7%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 26.7%

Away clean sheet 28.2%

Home win to nil 17.5%

Away win to nil 19.0%

Home over 0.5 71.8%

Away over 0.5 73.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 33.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 66.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 33.9%

Push 30.5%

Away cover 35.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 64.4%