Croatia vs Ghana

World Cup 2026 · Group L · Jun 27, 15:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Croatia

Model probability 71.9%

Market no-vig 53.4%

Calibrated probability 62.6%

Draw

Model probability 20.2%

Market no-vig 29.6%

Calibrated probability 24.9%

Ghana

Model probability 7.9%

Market no-vig 17.1%

Calibrated probability 12.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.6%

1-0 12.5%

1-1 11.4%

0-0 10.2%

3-0 9.3%

2-1 7.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 10.2% Over 0.5 89.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.8% Over 1.5 72.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 54.6% Over 2.5 45.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.3% Over 3.5 24.7%

BTTS yes 39.5%

BTTS no 60.5%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 53.3%

Away clean sheet 17.4%

Home win to nil 43.1%

Away win to nil 7.2%

Home over 0.5 82.6%

Away over 0.5 46.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 62.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 37.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 62.6%

Push 24.9%

Away cover 12.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 87.5%