Spain vs Belgium

World Cup 2026 · Quarter-final · Jul 10, 13:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Spain

Model probability 69.2%

Market no-vig 58.2%

Calibrated probability 63.7%

Draw

Model probability 21.4%

Market no-vig 24.5%

Calibrated probability 23.0%

Belgium

Model probability 9.5%

Market no-vig 17.2%

Calibrated probability 13.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.5%

1-0 12.8%

1-1 10.7%

3-0 9.0%

0-0 8.9%

2-1 8.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.9% Over 0.5 91.1%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.8% Over 1.5 73.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.0% Over 2.5 47.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.5% Over 3.5 25.5%

BTTS yes 41.2%

BTTS no 58.8%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 51.3%

Away clean sheet 16.5%

Home win to nil 42.4%

Away win to nil 7.5%

Home over 0.5 83.5%

Away over 0.5 48.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 63.7%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 36.3%

Home 0.0

Home cover 63.7%

Push 23.0%

Away cover 13.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 86.6%