Norway vs England

World Cup 2026 · Quarter-final · Jul 11, 15:00 CDMX FT 1–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Norway

Model probability 11.7%

Market no-vig 22.4%

Calibrated probability 17.0%

Draw

Model probability 22.9%

Market no-vig 25.0%

Calibrated probability 23.9%

England

Model probability 65.4%

Market no-vig 52.6%

Calibrated probability 59.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 12.2%

0-1 11.9%

1-1 11.3%

0-0 8.8%

1-2 8.4%

0-3 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.8% Over 0.5 91.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.7% Over 1.5 73.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.8% Over 2.5 47.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.5% Over 3.5 25.5%

BTTS yes 44.2%

BTTS no 55.8%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 18.1%

Away clean sheet 46.5%

Home win to nil 9.3%

Away win to nil 37.7%

Home over 0.5 53.5%

Away over 0.5 81.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 17.0%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 83.0%

Home 0.0

Home cover 17.0%

Push 23.9%

Away cover 59.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 41.0%