Mexico vs South Africa

wc2026 · Group A · Jun 11, 19:00 UTC

All fixtures

1X2 probability

Market odds unavailable. Results use the Dixon-Coles model projection.

Model projection

home

Model probability 41.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 41.9%

draw

Model probability 27.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 27.9%

away

Model probability 30.1%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 30.1%

Polymarket signal

Public market prices shown separately from the model and calibrated probability.

Live signal

Spread: Mexico (-1.5)

Open

Mexico 40.5% 2.47x

South Africa 59.5% 1.68x

Close TBD 24h volume $258.3k

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.3%

2-1 9.0%

1-0 8.6%

0-0 7.8%

1-2 7.4%

2-0 7.3%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.8% Over 0.5 92.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 23.4% Over 1.5 76.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.1% Over 2.5 50.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 71.1% Over 3.5 28.9%

BTTS yes 55.9%

BTTS no 44.1%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 29.3%

Away clean sheet 22.7%

Home win to nil 21.5%

Away win to nil 14.8%

Home over 0.5 77.3%

Away over 0.5 70.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 41.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 58.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 41.9%

Push 27.9%

Away cover 30.1%

Home 0.5

Home cover 69.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 30.1%

press Model projection

2–0

projected score-line

Model scoreline probability 7.3%

Model probability 41.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 41.9%

Explanation weight 41.5%

possession Model projection

5–1

projected score-line

Model scoreline probability 0.5%

Model probability 41.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 41.9%

Explanation weight 24.7%

high-line Model projection

1–2

projected score-line

Model scoreline probability 7.4%

Model probability 30.1%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 30.1%

Explanation weight 18.9%

counter Model projection

0–0

projected score-line

Model scoreline probability 7.8%

Model probability 27.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 27.9%

Explanation weight 14.6%

park-bus Model projection

3–1

projected score-line

Model scoreline probability 4.4%

Model probability 41.9%

Market no-vig N/A

Calibrated probability 41.9%

Explanation weight 0.3%

What-if · shift home expected goals

Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.